The Department of Finance (DOF) said most private sector institutions had beaten their September inflation forecasts, noting that analysts appeared to expect the worst last month.
In a statement, the DOF said Monday, Oct.11, that private sector analysts had a median inflation forecast of 5% for September, above the actual rate of 4.8% for the period.
The DOF said that only John Paolo Rivera of the Asian Institute of Management and Emmanuel Lopez of the Colegio de San Juan de Letran, predicted a lower rate of 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively, while 15 others reported a lower rate of 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively. placed their forecast between 4.9 and 5.2%. .
Standard Chartered Economist Jonathan Koh and Citi’s Nalin Chutchotitham predicted September’s inflation rate to be 4.9%.
Alvin Joseph Arogo, vice president of the National Bank of the Philippines and head of the equity research division, Patrick Ella of Sun Life Financial and Nicholas Antonio Mapa, senior economist of ING Bank NV Manila, meanwhile forecast five percent inflation.
Additionally, Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU) economist Ser Percival Peña-Reyes, Michael Ricafort of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.
Chief Economist of the Bank of the Philippine Islands Emilio Neri, Jr., Chief Economist of Security Bank Corp. Robert Dan Roces, Jonathan L. Ravelas of BDO Unibank, Romeo Bernardo, analyst at GlobalSource Partners and Ruben Carlo Asuncion of Union Bank of the Philippines, projected inflation to hit 5.1 percent.
Meanwhile, Mitzie Irene Conchada of De La Salle University and Miguel Chanco of Pantheon Economics both gave a forecast of 5.2%.
“Private sector analysts seemed to expect the worst as the median inflation rate is 5%, slightly above actual inflation in September 2021,” the DOF said citing a newspaper poll.
According to the DOF, the country’s headline inflation slowed slightly to 4.8% in September 2021, from 4.9%, which falls within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas estimate of 4.8 to 5.6%. (BSP).
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said the slowdown in headline inflation in September was mainly the result of the annual rate of increase in the transportation index falling to 5.2% from 7.2% the preceding month.
The latest figures now put average inflation at 4.5%, above the BSP target range of 2% to 4%.
“BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said the inflation rate is expected to remain high for the next few months before settling at target levels before the end of 2021,” the DOF said.
Diokno also mentioned that supply-side factors such as weather disruptions, the global oil outlook and African swine fever (ASF) continue to drive the inflation rate.
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